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TheoremProved

The sample mean is unbiased

Statement

If X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_n are independent, identically distributed with E[Xi]=μE[X_i] = \mu for every ii, then the sample mean Xˉ=1n∑i=1nXi\bar X = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} X_i satisfies E[Xˉ]=μE[\bar X] = \mu.

Why is it true?

Averaging removes systematic bias: on average, across many hypothetical samples, Xˉ\bar X lands exactly on the true population mean μ\mu, neither systematically too high nor too low.

Proof sketch

By definition, Xˉ=1n∑i=1nXi\bar X = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} X_i. Expectation is a linear operator, so it distributes over the sum and the constant factor 1n\frac{1}{n}: E[Xˉ]=1n∑i=1nE[Xi]E[\bar X] = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} E[X_i].

Since every XiX_i comes from the same population, E[Xi]=μE[X_i] = \mu for each of the nn terms, so the sum collapses to 1n∑i=1nμ=1n(nμ)=μ\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} \mu = \frac{1}{n}(n\mu) = \mu.

Therefore E[Xˉ]=μE[\bar X] = \mu for every sample size nn: the sample mean is unbiased no matter how small or large the sample is. This is a statement about the center of its sampling distribution only -- the spread of that distribution, Var⁡(Xˉ)=σ2/n\operatorname{Var}(\bar X) = \sigma^2/n, still shrinks as nn grows, which is what the confidence interval below uses.

Topics that use this theorem

Step-by-step proofs

No step-by-step proof yet for this theorem.

References

  1. NIST/SEMATECH (2013). Confidence Limits for the Mean
  2. Diez, D.; Cetinkaya-Rundel, M.; Barr, C. (2019). OpenIntro Statistics