Weak law of large numbers
Statement
Let be independent, identically distributed random variables with finite mean . For the sample mean and every , we have ; that is, converges in probability to .
Why is it true?
Any single trial of a random experiment can fluctuate wildly, but when you average many independent trials together, positive and negative deviations tend to cancel out, making a large departure of the sample average from the true mean increasingly unlikely as the sample size grows.
Proof sketch
When the variance is finite, linearity and independence give and . Applying Chebyshev's inequality yields as . When only is assumed (Khinchin's theorem), one truncates at level by setting , uses to show , and applies Chebyshev's inequality to the truncated average.
Topics that use this theorem
Related theorems
Step-by-step proofs
No step-by-step proof yet for this theorem.
References
- Jacob Bernoulli (1713). Ars Conjectandi
- Geoffrey Grimmett, David Stirzaker (2020). Probability and Random Processes