Let B1,B2,…,Bn be a partition of the sample space Ω, meaning Bi∩Bj=∅ for i=j, B1∪B2∪⋯∪Bn=Ω, and P(Bi)>0 for every i. Then for any event A, P(A)=∑i=1nP(Bi)⋅P(A∣Bi).
Why is it true?
Since the Bi partition Ω, event A is automatically chopped into n disjoint pieces, one inside each Bi; adding up the probability of each piece, expressed via the multiplication rule, recovers all of P(A) without double-counting or missing anything.
Proof sketch
Step 1 (partition A using the Bi): define Ai=A∩Bi for each i=1,…,n. Since the Bi are pairwise disjoint, so are the Ai, and since B1∪⋯∪Bn=Ω⊇A, every outcome of A lies in exactly one Ai, so A=A1∪A2∪⋯∪An with the union disjoint.
Step 2 (add probabilities of disjoint pieces): because probability is additive over pairwise disjoint events, P(A)=P(A1)+P(A2)+⋯+P(An)=∑i=1nP(A∩Bi).
Step 3 (rewrite each term with the multiplication rule): for each i, the multiplication rule gives P(A∩Bi)=P(Bi)⋅P(A∣Bi), which is well defined since P(Bi)>0.
Step 4 (substitute back): replacing every P(A∩Bi) in Step 2 by P(Bi)⋅P(A∣Bi) gives exactly P(A)=∑i=1nP(Bi)⋅P(A∣Bi), as claimed.