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TheoremProved

The law of total probability

Statement

Let B1,B2,…,BnB_1, B_2, \ldots, B_n be a partition of the sample space Ω\Omega, meaning Bi∩Bj=∅B_i \cap B_j = \varnothing for i≠ji \neq j, B1∪B2∪⋯∪Bn=ΩB_1 \cup B_2 \cup \cdots \cup B_n = \Omega, and P(Bi)>0P(B_i) > 0 for every ii. Then for any event AA, P(A)=∑i=1nP(Bi)⋅P(A∣Bi)P(A) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} P(B_i) \cdot P(A \mid B_i).

Why is it true?

Since the BiB_i partition Ω\Omega, event AA is automatically chopped into nn disjoint pieces, one inside each BiB_i; adding up the probability of each piece, expressed via the multiplication rule, recovers all of P(A)P(A) without double-counting or missing anything.

Proof sketch

Step 1 (partition AA using the BiB_i): define Ai=A∩BiA_i = A \cap B_i for each i=1,…,ni = 1, \ldots, n. Since the BiB_i are pairwise disjoint, so are the AiA_i, and since B1∪⋯∪Bn=Ω⊇AB_1 \cup \cdots \cup B_n = \Omega \supseteq A, every outcome of AA lies in exactly one AiA_i, so A=A1∪A2∪⋯∪AnA = A_1 \cup A_2 \cup \cdots \cup A_n with the union disjoint.

Step 2 (add probabilities of disjoint pieces): because probability is additive over pairwise disjoint events, P(A)=P(A1)+P(A2)+⋯+P(An)=∑i=1nP(A∩Bi)P(A) = P(A_1) + P(A_2) + \cdots + P(A_n) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} P(A \cap B_i).

Step 3 (rewrite each term with the multiplication rule): for each ii, the multiplication rule gives P(A∩Bi)=P(Bi)⋅P(A∣Bi)P(A \cap B_i) = P(B_i) \cdot P(A \mid B_i), which is well defined since P(Bi)>0P(B_i) > 0.

Step 4 (substitute back): replacing every P(A∩Bi)P(A \cap B_i) in Step 2 by P(Bi)⋅P(A∣Bi)P(B_i) \cdot P(A \mid B_i) gives exactly P(A)=∑i=1nP(Bi)⋅P(A∣Bi)P(A) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} P(B_i) \cdot P(A \mid B_i), as claimed.

Topics that use this theorem

Step-by-step proofs

No step-by-step proof yet for this theorem.