MathLabs

Applied and computational mathematics

Social choice theory

Studies how individual preferences combine into collective decisions, including voting systems.

IntuitionThree friends, three favorite restaurants, and no fair way to pick one

Ann prefers sushi to pizza to tacos. Bob prefers pizza to tacos to sushi. Cara prefers tacos to sushi to pizza. Ask which restaurant the group of three prefers, comparing two at a time by majority vote: a majority (Ann and Cara) prefers sushi to pizza; a majority (Ann and Bob) prefers pizza to tacos; but a majority (Bob and Cara) also prefers tacos to sushi. The group's preference cycles — sushi beats pizza beats tacos beats sushi — even though every individual person has a perfectly consistent ranking. Social choice theory studies exactly this gap between individually rational preferences and collectively rational decisions, and asks how far it can be closed.

A complete bipartite graph with three nodes on the left labeled as voters and three nodes on the right labeled as candidates, with every voter node connected to every candidate node.
Three voters, three candidates: every voter (left) is linked to every candidate (right), because each voter must rank all of them. Even with only 33 voters and 33 candidates, there are already (3!)3=216(3!)^3 = 216 possible combinations of individual rankings for a social choice rule to handle consistently.

Formally, each voter ii reports a preference order — a ranking of the alternatives from most to least favored. A social welfare function FF takes the whole profile of individual rankings and outputs a single social ranking; a social choice function takes the profile and outputs a single winner. Both kinds of rules need to handle every logically possible profile, not just convenient ones, which is exactly what makes the restaurant example above a genuine problem rather than a fluke.

UndergraduateAggregation rules and Arrow's four conditions

Definition: Social welfare function and the majority relation

A social welfare function FF maps every profile of individual preference orders (≻1,…,≻n)(\succ_1, \dots, \succ_n) to a single social preference order ≻\succ. The majority relation is the natural candidate: declare a≻ba \succ b socially exactly when a strict majority of voters rank aa above bb. As the restaurant example showed, the majority relation can fail to be transitive — it can cycle instead of ranking the alternatives from best to worst.

a≻b  ⟺  #{i:a≻ib}>#{i:b≻ia}a \succ b \iff \#\{i : a \succ_i b\} > \#\{i : b \succ_i a\}

Arrow asked: is there any rule, majority or otherwise, that always outputs a transitive social ranking while satisfying a short list of minimal fairness conditions? Unrestricted domain: the rule must work for every possible profile of individual rankings. Weak Pareto: if every voter ranks aa above bb, so must society. Independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA): the social ranking of aa versus bb depends only on how individuals rank aa versus bb, not on where some third alternative cc sits. Non-dictatorship: no single voter's preferences always determine the social ranking regardless of everyone else.

Three voting rules, and where each one runs into trouble
RuleHow the winner is chosenAlways picks the Condorcet winner?Strategy-proof?
Plurality (most first-place votes)Each voter names one favorite; most votes winsNoNo
Borda countRank of nn alternatives gives n−1,n−2,…,0n-1, n-2, \dots, 0 points; highest total winsNoNo
Pairwise majority (Condorcet method)Compare every pair head-to-head by majority voteYes, when one existsNo
Borda(a)=∑i=1n(m−ranki(a))\text{Borda}(a) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} \big(m - \text{rank}_i(a)\big)

AdvancedTwo impossibility theorems

If there are at least 33 alternatives, the only social welfare function satisfying Unrestricted Domain, Weak Pareto, and Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives is a dictatorship: some single voter ii such that the social ranking always equals voter ii's own ranking.

Why is it true?

Pareto and IIA sound modest — surely some clever, non-dictatorial rule could satisfy both while still producing a coherent ranking. Arrow's theorem shows this intuition is wrong: whenever there are 33 or more alternatives, the two conditions together already force all of the aggregation power onto a single voter, once transitivity is also required.

Proof

Sketch (pivotal voter argument). Fix three alternatives a,b,ca, b, c. Call aa "extreme" in a profile if every voter ranks aa either at the very top or the very bottom of their own list, with arbitrary rankings among the others. A short argument using Weak Pareto and IIA — moving other alternatives one at a time past aa and checking that doing so cannot be blocked without violating Pareto or letting a ranking depend on where aa sits — shows that whenever aa is extreme for every voter, society must also rank aa at the very top or the very bottom of its own ranking.

Start from the profile where every voter ranks aa at the bottom; by Weak Pareto, society ranks aa at the bottom too. Now let voters switch, one by one in a fixed order, to ranking aa at the top, keeping aa extreme at every step. By the extremal fact above, at each step society's ranking of aa is still either top or bottom, and Pareto forces it to be top once everyone has switched. So there is a first voter, call them n∗n^\ast, whose switch flips the social ranking of aa from bottom to top — the pivotal voter for aa.

Next, show n∗n^\ast is decisive between bb and cc too — not just about aa. Build a new profile where n∗n^\ast ranks bb above aa above cc, other voters who came before n∗n^\ast in the switching order rank aa at the top (so their relative ranking of b,cb, c can be set freely), and the rest rank aa at the bottom. Comparing this profile to the two profiles used to define pivotality, IIA implies society ranks bb above aa (from the top-of-aa side) and aa above cc (from the bottom-of-aa side), hence bb above cc by transitivity — exactly matching n∗n^\ast's own ranking of bb versus cc, regardless of how anyone else ranks them.

Repeating this argument for every pair of alternatives shows n∗n^\ast's preference always determines society's preference: n∗n^\ast is a dictator. This contradicts Non-Dictatorship, so no rule can satisfy all of Unrestricted Domain, Weak Pareto, and IIA without also being dictatorial.

Let a social choice function pick a single winner from at least 33 alternatives, for every possible profile of voter rankings, in such a way that every alternative can actually win for some profile (onto). If the function is strategy-proof — no voter can ever get a better outcome (according to their true ranking) by reporting a false ranking — then it must be a dictatorship: some voter's top choice is always the winner.

Why is it true?

Ranked-choice systems are often sold as resistant to strategic voting. Gibbard–Satterthwaite says the opposite is essentially unavoidable: as soon as a rule picks a single winner from 33 or more alternatives, is defined for every profile, lets every alternative win sometimes, and is not a dictatorship, there is guaranteed to be some situation where some voter benefits from lying about their preferences.

Proof

Sketch (reduction to Arrow's theorem). First, a monotonicity lemma: if alternative aa wins at some profile, and the profile changes only by some voters moving aa higher in their own ranking (without otherwise reordering the other alternatives), aa must still win. Otherwise a voter whose sincere ranking is the "before" profile could misreport as the "after" profile to push aa from losing to winning, or vice versa — either way, contradicting strategy-proofness for someone.

Next, use the choice function to build a derived social ranking for each profile: declare aa above bb in the derived ranking exactly when aa would still win after every alternative other than aa and bb is deleted from every voter's ballot, leaving a straight two-way race. Ontoness and strategy-proofness of the original choice function, together with the monotonicity lemma, can be used to check that this derived ranking satisfies Unrestricted Domain, Weak Pareto, and Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives as a social welfare function.

By Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, since there are at least 33 alternatives, this derived social ranking must be dictatorial: some voter ii's ranking always equals the derived social ranking.

Finally, check that this same voter ii's top choice is always the winner of the original social choice function: since the derived ranking puts ii's favorite alternative above every other alternative, and the derived ranking tracks who wins pairwise comparisons, ii's favorite must be the overall winner at every profile. So the original strategy-proof, onto social choice function is dictated by voter ii.

AdvancedReal-World Applications and Worked Examples

Social choice theory shapes real institutions: national election commissions choose between plurality, ranked-choice, and proportional systems knowing exactly which manipulation risks and paradoxes each one accepts; committees and juries that rank candidates or proposals by Borda count or pairwise comparison inherit the same trade-offs; and recommender systems and AI alignment researchers now treat combining many users' or many AI raters' preferences into a single ranking as a social choice problem in disguise, inheriting Arrow's and Gibbard–Satterthwaite's warnings along with it.

Example: Finding the Borda count winner

Three voters rank three candidates X,Y,ZX, Y, Z as follows. Voter 1: X≻Y≻ZX \succ Y \succ Z. Voter 2: Y≻Z≻XY \succ Z \succ X. Voter 3: Y≻X≻ZY \succ X \succ Z. With m=3m = 3 candidates, a first-place vote earns 22 points, second place earns 11 point, and last place earns 00 points. Who wins by Borda count?

Solution

Tally XX's points: Voter 1 ranks XX first (22 points), Voter 2 ranks XX last (00 points), Voter 3 ranks XX second (11 point). Total: 2+0+1=32 + 0 + 1 = 3.

Tally YY's points: Voter 1 ranks YY second (11 point), Voter 2 ranks YY first (22 points), Voter 3 ranks YY first (22 points). Total: 1+2+2=51 + 2 + 2 = 5.

Tally ZZ's points: Voter 1 ranks ZZ last (00 points), Voter 2 ranks ZZ second (11 point), Voter 3 ranks ZZ last (00 points). Total: 0+1+0=10 + 1 + 0 = 1.

YY has the highest total, 55 points, so YY wins by Borda count — even though YY is nobody's unanimous top choice, it is consistently ranked near the top by everyone.

Example: A voter who benefits from lying, under plurality rule

Under plurality rule (each voter names one favorite; most votes wins), suppose 4545 voters truly prefer A≻B≻CA \succ B \succ C, 4040 voters truly prefer B≻C≻AB \succ C \succ A, and 1515 voters truly prefer C≻B≻AC \succ B \succ A. If everyone votes for their true favorite, who wins, and can any of the 1515 voters in the last group get a better outcome by voting for someone other than their true favorite CC?

Solution

If everyone votes sincerely: AA gets 4545 votes, BB gets 4040 votes, CC gets 1515 votes. AA has the most votes and wins.

But the 1515 voters who truly prefer C≻B≻AC \succ B \succ A rank AA last. From their point of view, AA winning is the worst possible outcome.

Suppose instead those 1515 voters insincerely vote for BB, their second choice, instead of CC. The tally becomes AA: 4545, BB: 40+15=5540 + 15 = 55, CC: 00. Now BB wins.

Since these 1515 voters truly rank BB above AA (B≻iAB \succ_i A for each of them), switching their vote from their sincere favorite CC to BB changed the outcome from their worst option (AA) to a better one (BB) — exactly the kind of profitable misrepresentation that Gibbard–Satterthwaite guarantees must exist for any non-dictatorial rule with 33 or more alternatives.

Three voters rank candidates P,QP, Q: Voter 1: P≻QP \succ Q. Voter 2: P≻QP \succ Q. Voter 3: Q≻PQ \succ P. By the majority relation, what is the social ranking of PP versus QQ?

With 44 candidates, a first-place vote is worth how many Borda points, using the convention that last place is worth 00 points?

Arrow's Impossibility Theorem shows that, with 33 or more alternatives, no social welfare function can satisfy Unrestricted Domain, Weak Pareto, Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives, AND:

According to the Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem, which voting rule (choosing one winner from 33 or more candidates, defined for every profile, letting every candidate win sometimes) can guarantee that NO voter ever benefits from insincere voting?

References

  1. Kenneth J. Arrow (1950). A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare · DOI:10.1086/256963
  2. Allan Gibbard (1973). Manipulation of Voting Schemes: A General Result · DOI:10.2307/1914083
  3. Amartya Sen (1970). Collective Choice and Social Welfare