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TheoremProved

The multiplication rule for independent events

Statement

Let Ω=Ω1×Ω2\Omega = \Omega_1 \times \Omega_2 be a sample space built from two independent finite equally-likely sample spaces, with mm outcomes in the first and nn outcomes in the second. For events A⊆Ω1A \subseteq \Omega_1 and B⊆Ω2B \subseteq \Omega_2, writing A∩BA \cap B for the event that the first outcome lies in AA and the second lies in BB, P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \cdot P(B).

Why is it true?

Choosing an outcome that satisfies both AA and BB independently is a two-step counting process (the multiplication rule for counting), so the number of favorable pairs is simply the product of the numbers of favorable outcomes in each component.

Proof sketch

Step 1 (set up the counting): let ∣A∣=a|A| = a and ∣B∣=b|B| = b. An outcome of Ω=Ω1×Ω2\Omega = \Omega_1 \times \Omega_2 satisfying both conditions is a pair (ω1,ω2)(\omega_1, \omega_2) with ω1∈A\omega_1 \in A and ω2∈B\omega_2 \in B.

Step 2 (apply the multiplication rule for counting): choosing ω1\omega_1 can be done in aa ways and, independently of that choice, ω2\omega_2 can be done in bb ways, so by the multiplication rule for counting there are a⋅ba \cdot b favorable pairs.

Step 3 (divide by the total number of outcomes): the total sample space has m⋅nm \cdot n equally likely outcomes, so P(A∩B)=abmnP(A \cap B) = \frac{ab}{mn}.

Step 4 (factor the fraction): rewriting abmn=am⋅bn=P(A)⋅P(B)\frac{ab}{mn} = \frac{a}{m} \cdot \frac{b}{n} = P(A) \cdot P(B), since P(A)=a/mP(A) = a/m and P(B)=b/nP(B) = b/n by the classical probability formula, which proves the claim.

Topics that use this theorem

Step-by-step proofs

No step-by-step proof yet for this theorem.

References

  1. Sheldon Ross (2019). A First Course in Probability
  2. Joseph K. Blitzstein, Jessica Hwang (2019). Introduction to Probability