MathLabs

Applied and computational mathematics

Mathematical finance

Applies probability and stochastic calculus to price options and manage financial risk.

IntuitionNo free lunches: how the price of a future promise gets pinned down

Suppose someone offers you the right, but not the obligation, to buy a share of stock next year at today's price. How much should that right cost? You cannot just guess: if the price is set too low, anyone could buy this right for nothing, wait, and pocket a certain profit if the stock happens to rise — a free lunch that real markets do not allow to persist. Mathematical finance turns this single idea, called no-arbitrage (no risk-free profit from nothing), into a precise machine for pricing every kind of financial contract.

A cubic curve that rises smoothly with a gentle wiggle, used to suggest how an option's price curves smoothly with the stock price instead of having a sharp corner.
An nn-step Cox–Ross–Rubinstein binomial tree produces a Bin(n,p)\mathrm{Bin}(n, p) distribution of log-returns (violet bars), which converges as n→∞n \to \infty to the Gaussian Black–Scholes density (amber curve).

The simplest such contracts are options. A European call option gives its holder the right to buy one share at a fixed strike price KK on a fixed maturity date TT; a European put option gives the right to sell at KK on TT. Whether the holder actually exercises the right depends only on the stock price STS_T at maturity, so the whole contract reduces to a single number: its payoff.

UndergraduatePayoffs, replication, and the price today

Definition: European call and put payoffs

At maturity TT, a call is worth max⁡(ST−K,0)\max(S_T - K, 0): exercised only if the stock is above the strike, in which case it is worth the difference. A put is worth max⁡(K−ST,0)\max(K - S_T, 0): exercised only if the stock is below the strike. Write CC for the price today of the call and PP for the price today of the put, both on the same non-dividend-paying stock, same strike KK, same maturity TT.

CT=max⁡(ST−K,0),PT=max⁡(K−ST,0)C_T = \max(S_T - K, 0), \qquad P_T = \max(K - S_T, 0)

These are the payoffs at maturity; the hard question is what CC and PP must be today, long before STS_T is known. The key trick, used throughout mathematical finance, is replication: build a portfolio of stock and risk-free bonds whose payoff at TT exactly matches the option's payoff in every possible scenario. Since two portfolios with identical future payoffs must have identical prices today — otherwise one could sell the expensive one, buy the cheap one, and pocket the difference risk-free — the option's price equals the cost of building its replica.

From one step to infinitely many: three pricing models for the same call option
ModelTime discretizationUnderlying price dynamicsCall price
One-step binomial treeSingle period of length T−tT - tSS moves to SuSu or SdSdC=p Cu+(1−p) Cd1+rC = \dfrac{p\,C_u + (1-p)\,C_d}{1+r}
nn-step binomial treenn periods of length T/nT/nRecombining lattice of up/down movesBackward induction node by node; converges to Black–Scholes as n→∞n \to \infty
Black–Scholes (continuous time)Continuous timeGeometric Brownian motion dSt=μSt dt+σSt dWtdS_t = \mu S_t\,dt + \sigma S_t\,dW_tC=SΦ(d1)−Ke−r(T−t)Φ(d2)C = S\Phi(d_1) - Ke^{-r(T-t)}\Phi(d_2)
C=S Φ(d1)−Ke−r(T−t) Φ(d2),d1,2=ln⁡(S/K)+(r±σ22)(T−t)σT−tC = S\,\Phi(d_1) - Ke^{-r(T-t)}\,\Phi(d_2), \qquad d_{1,2} = \frac{\ln(S/K) + \left(r \pm \frac{\sigma^2}{2}\right)(T-t)}{\sigma\sqrt{T-t}}

UndergraduateTwo theorems: an exact relation, and a pricing equation

For a European call and put on the same non-dividend-paying stock, with the same strike KK and maturity TT, and a constant risk-free rate rr: C−P=S−Ke−r(T−t)C - P = S - K e^{-r(T-t)}, where SS is the stock price at time t≤Tt \le T.

Why is it true?

A call plus enough cash to grow into KK by maturity, and a put plus one share of stock, are just two different ways of guaranteeing you end up holding exactly one share worth max⁡(ST,K)\max(S_T, K) at time TT. If two recipes always produce the same dish, they must cost the same today.

Proof

Build two portfolios today, at time tt. Portfolio A holds one call option plus an amount of cash Ke−r(T−t)Ke^{-r(T-t)} invested at the risk-free rate, so that it grows to exactly KK by time TT. Portfolio B holds one put option plus one share of the stock.

Compare their values at maturity TT in the two possible cases. If ST≥KS_T \ge K: the call is exercised and worth ST−KS_T - K, and the cash has grown to KK, so Portfolio A is worth (ST−K)+K=ST(S_T - K) + K = S_T. The put expires worthless, and the stock is worth STS_T, so Portfolio B is worth 0+ST=ST0 + S_T = S_T. The two portfolios agree.

If ST<KS_T < K: the call expires worthless, and the cash is still worth KK, so Portfolio A is worth 0+K=K0 + K = K. The put is exercised and worth K−STK - S_T, and the stock is worth STS_T, so Portfolio B is worth (K−ST)+ST=K(K - S_T) + S_T = K. The two portfolios again agree, this time both equal to KK.

So in every possible outcome, Portfolio A and Portfolio B have exactly the same value at TT. If their values at tt differed, an arbitrageur could sell the more expensive portfolio, buy the cheaper one, invest the difference at the risk-free rate, and at TT collect a risk-free profit regardless of what the stock does. Since real markets do not allow such riskless profit to persist, the two portfolios must have the same price at tt: C+Ke−r(T−t)=P+SC + Ke^{-r(T-t)} = P + S, which rearranges to C−P=S−Ke−r(T−t)C - P = S - Ke^{-r(T-t)}.

Suppose the stock price follows geometric Brownian motion dSt=μSt dt+σSt dWtdS_t = \mu S_t\,dt + \sigma S_t\,dW_t, and let V(S,t)V(S,t) be the no-arbitrage price of a derivative paying a function of STS_T at maturity. Then VV must satisfy ∂V∂t+12σ2S2∂2V∂S2+rS∂V∂S−rV=0\dfrac{\partial V}{\partial t} + \dfrac{1}{2}\sigma^2 S^2 \dfrac{\partial^2 V}{\partial S^2} + rS\dfrac{\partial V}{\partial S} - rV = 0.

Why is it true?

Ordinary calculus says the change in V(St,t)V(S_t,t) comes only from ∂V/∂t\partial V/\partial t and ∂V/∂S\partial V/\partial S. But StS_t jitters randomly, and Itô's lemma shows that this randomness feeds back into VV through an extra term built from the second derivative ∂2V/∂S2\partial^2 V/\partial S^2 — a correction with no analogue in ordinary calculus. Once that extra term is accounted for, a portfolio that holds the derivative and exactly the right amount of stock can be made completely riskless, and a riskless portfolio can only earn the risk-free rate rr.

Proof

Apply Itô's lemma to V(St,t)V(S_t,t), treating VV as a smooth function of the random process StS_t and of time. It states dV=(∂V∂t+μSt∂V∂S+12σ2St2∂2V∂S2)dt+σSt∂V∂S dWtdV = \left(\dfrac{\partial V}{\partial t} + \mu S_t \dfrac{\partial V}{\partial S} + \dfrac{1}{2}\sigma^2 S_t^2 \dfrac{\partial^2 V}{\partial S^2}\right)dt + \sigma S_t \dfrac{\partial V}{\partial S}\,dW_t. Unlike ordinary calculus, an extra 12σ2St2∂2V/∂S2\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2 S_t^2 \partial^2 V/\partial S^2 term appears, coming from the nonzero quadratic variation of Brownian motion.

Now build a hedged portfolio Π=V−ΔSt\Pi = V - \Delta S_t, holding one derivative and short Δ\Delta shares of stock, with Δ\Delta chosen to be ∂V/∂S\partial V/\partial S. Its change is dΠ=dV−Δ dStd\Pi = dV - \Delta\,dS_t. Substituting the expression for dVdV and dSt=μSt dt+σSt dWtdS_t = \mu S_t\,dt + \sigma S_t\,dW_t, and choosing Δ=∂V/∂S\Delta = \partial V/\partial S, the random terms σSt∂V/∂S dWt\sigma S_t \partial V/\partial S\,dW_t and −ΔσSt dWt-\Delta \sigma S_t\,dW_t cancel exactly.

What remains is dΠ=(∂V∂t+12σ2St2∂2V∂S2)dtd\Pi = \left(\dfrac{\partial V}{\partial t} + \dfrac{1}{2}\sigma^2 S_t^2 \dfrac{\partial^2 V}{\partial S^2}\right)dt, a purely deterministic (riskless) change over the instant dtdt, with no dependence left on the stock's drift μ\mu.

A riskless portfolio must earn exactly the risk-free rate, or an arbitrage would be possible by borrowing or lending against it. So dΠ=rΠ dt=r(V−St ∂V/∂S) dtd\Pi = r\Pi\,dt = r(V - S_t\,\partial V/\partial S)\,dt. Equating the two expressions for dΠd\Pi and dividing by dtdt gives ∂V∂t+12σ2S2∂2V∂S2=rV−rS∂V∂S\dfrac{\partial V}{\partial t} + \dfrac{1}{2}\sigma^2 S^2 \dfrac{\partial^2 V}{\partial S^2} = rV - rS\dfrac{\partial V}{\partial S}, which rearranges into the Black–Scholes equation.

AdvancedReal-World Applications and Worked Examples

Banks use these ideas every day to price and hedge options books, insurers use them to value guarantees embedded in life and annuity products, and corporate treasurers use them to decide how much to pay for protection against currency or interest-rate swings. The binomial tree is the workhorse for hand calculation and for options with early-exercise features; the Black–Scholes formula is the workhorse for quick, closed-form estimates.

Example: Pricing a call with a one-step binomial tree

A stock trades today at S0=100S_0 = 100. Over the next year it will either rise to Su=110S_u = 110 or fall to Sd=90S_d = 90. The risk-free rate is r=0.05r = 0.05 per year (simple, one period). Find the price of a European call with strike K=100K = 100 and maturity one year.

Solution

First find the risk-neutral probability pp of the up move — the probability under which the discounted stock price is a martingale, not the real-world probability. It solves S0=p Su+(1−p) Sd1+rS_0 = \dfrac{p\,S_u + (1-p)\,S_d}{1+r}, giving p=(1+r)S0−SdSu−Sd=1.05×100−90110−90=1520=0.75p = \dfrac{(1+r)S_0 - S_d}{S_u - S_d} = \dfrac{1.05\times 100 - 90}{110 - 90} = \dfrac{15}{20} = 0.75.

Next compute the call's payoff in each branch: if the stock rises, Cu=max⁡(110−100,0)=10C_u = \max(110 - 100, 0) = 10; if it falls, Cd=max⁡(90−100,0)=0C_d = \max(90 - 100, 0) = 0.

Finally discount the risk-neutral expected payoff at the risk-free rate: C0=p Cu+(1−p) Cd1+r=0.75×10+0.25×01.05=7.51.05≈7.14C_0 = \dfrac{p\,C_u + (1-p)\,C_d}{1+r} = \dfrac{0.75\times 10 + 0.25\times 0}{1.05} = \dfrac{7.5}{1.05} \approx 7.14.

So the call is worth about 7.147.14 today — notice that the real-world probability of the stock going up never entered the calculation, only pp, rr, and the two possible payoffs.

Example: Checking put–call parity to find a missing price

A stock trades at S=50S = 50. A European call with strike K=48K = 48 and maturity T=0.5T = 0.5 years is quoted at C=6.5C = 6.5. The risk-free rate is r=0.04r = 0.04. Use put–call parity to find the price PP of the European put with the same strike and maturity.

Solution

Start from put–call parity, C−P=S−Ke−r(T−t)C - P = S - Ke^{-r(T-t)}, and solve for PP: P=C−S+Ke−r(T−t)P = C - S + Ke^{-r(T-t)}.

Compute the discount factor first: Ke−rT=48×e−0.04×0.5=48×e−0.02≈48×0.9802≈47.05Ke^{-rT} = 48 \times e^{-0.04\times 0.5} = 48 \times e^{-0.02} \approx 48 \times 0.9802 \approx 47.05.

Substitute the numbers: P≈6.5−50+47.05=3.55P \approx 6.5 - 50 + 47.05 = 3.55.

So the put should trade at about 3.553.55. If it traded noticeably above or below this value while CC, SS, and rr stayed fixed, an arbitrageur could combine the mispriced put with the call, the stock, and borrowing or lending to lock in a riskless profit — which is exactly why parity holds so tightly in liquid option markets.

Using put–call parity with S=100S = 100, K=100K = 100, r=0.05r = 0.05, T−t=1T - t = 1, and a call price C=10C = 10, what is the put price PP? (Use e−0.05≈0.9512e^{-0.05} \approx 0.9512.)

In a one-step binomial model with up factor u=1.2u = 1.2, down factor d=0.8d = 0.8, and risk-free rate r=0.1r = 0.1 per period, what is the risk-neutral probability pp of the up move?

Under the Black–Scholes model, if the true (real-world) expected return μ\mu of the stock increases while its volatility σ\sigma stays fixed, the price of a call option on it:

Which of the following is NOT an assumption of the classical Black–Scholes model?

References

  1. Fischer Black, Myron Scholes (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities · DOI:10.1086/260062
  2. John C. Cox, Stephen A. Ross, Mark Rubinstein (1979). Option Pricing: A Simplified Approach · DOI:10.1016/0304-405X(79)90015-1
  3. Steven E. Shreve (2004). Stochastic Calculus for Finance II: Continuous-Time Models